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MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISIONTOOLS� is a special version of Bob Clemen's best-selling text, MAKING HARD DECISIONS. This straight-forward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools� by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools�. This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students to business and engineering.
- Sales Rank: #1166657 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Duxbury Press
- Published on: 2003-11-24
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.25" h x 7.50" w x 1.25" l,
- Binding: Hardcover
- 752 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
About the Author
Robert T. Clemen is an Associate Professor at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. He has been an active contributor to the field of decision analysis since earning his Ph.D. at Indiana University in 1984 and is an authority in the use of expert information in risk analysis. Aside from his research interests, Bob has a strong focus on making decision analysis understandable to all students at all levels, ranging from creating teaching materials for high school students to teaching in executive education programs.
Terence Reilly is an associate professor of mathematics and statistics at Babson College. Since graduating from the University of Oregon, he has spearheaded curriculum changes in the graduate management science classes at Babson College. He has developed extensive distance-learning based materials and has been awarded a grant to implement cooperative learning techniques in the classroom. His research interests include decision analysis, sensitivity analysis, copulas (multivariate distributions), and financial risk analysis. He regularly teaches in executive education programs and has consulted with many corporations, large and small.
Most helpful customer reviews
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
So far so good, update later
By John
Covers some good material, and so far so good. Will use software later in a project. I will update if it is unsatisfactory.
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
A thorough but academic treatment of decision analysis
By Graham Jeffery
This book is divided into three equal-sized sections on modelling decisions, uncertainty and preferences. The decision section includes structuring with decision diagrams and decision trees and the process of developing sensitivity analysis and solving the decision problem. The book has been updated a few times, but its recommendations regarding software are inevitably out of date.
The uncertainty section is a good introduction to probability theory and the rules for manipulating probabilities. It describes how one might assess real-world probabilities of future events and continuous distributions, and overcome bias, but the description is thin. The book seems to rely instead on theoretical probability models and introduces the bionomial, Poisson, exponential, normal and beta distributions, material in my experience that is not entirely relevant to real-world decision problems. It also has a chapter on Monte Carlo simulation.
The preferences section is an academic and thorough discussion of utility theory and multi-attribute decision-making. However, it does not really do justice to the complex multi-dimensional trade-offs that occur in real situations.
For a university course I might use this book. For training businessmen, I prefer the much more practical Decision Analysis for the Professional.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Good First Impressions
By A. Borgman
Unfortunately I had to drop the class that required this text, but before doing so I read the first couple of chapters. It seems like a pretty basic introduction to the topic. There does not seem to be a lot of rigor (which may be more a reflection of the field than this text). The text does seem to make liberal use of examples and case studies covering a variety of situations and industries.
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